Dólar fechou em alta e renovou recorde, chegando a a R$ 4,36

US currency rose 0.19% and closed at R$ 4.3650. Daily high scored R$ 4.3775.

Dollar closed on a high this Tuesday (19), renewing the closing high, a day after the president of the Central Bank said that he is calm in relation to the exchange rate and with investors attentive to the news of the coronavirus.

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This Wednesday (19), the US currency rose by 0.19%, to R$ 4.3650. At the high of the day, the coin hit R$ 4.3775. In part of the month, the dollar accumulates a high of 1.87%. In the year, the advance is 8,86%.

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dólar recorde 4,36

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Why the dollar high?

After concerns about the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy, there are other points to consider:

The most appreciated dollar in recent weeks has also reflected interest rates at historic lows in Brazil; perspectives on the pace of growth of the Brazilian economy; and progress of reforms.

Several financial institutions have revised downwards their prospects for economic growth in 2020 in the wake of the spread of the new coronavirus and the perception of a slightly greater than expected slowdown in the pace of growth at the beginning of the year.

The GDP forecast for 2020, according to the Focus survey released on Monday, was reduced to 2.23% by the Brazilian market. But several banks and consultancies already estimate a growth of, at most, 2%.

“With the growth dynamics in focus, it seems that we are migrating to a dollar range between R$ 4.25 and R$ 4.50”, said Dan Kawa, partner at TAG Investimentos, to Valor Online. It indicates that the US currency should operate at this level for some time.

The consistent decrease in the Selic rate, since July 2019, has further reduced the interest rate differential between Brazil and other emerging peers. Which can make investment in the country less attractive to foreigners and generate a dollar outflow. This also contributes to greater devaluation of the real against the US currency.