In times of quarantine of the new coronavirus, the horizon seems further than usual. If, on the one hand, health is safeguarded with measures of isolation, economists comment the economic part can bitter dark times.
With the stoppage of non-essential services, part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also stops. In Goiás, according to economist Aurélio Troncoso, coordinator of UniAlfa's master's research center, this represents around 60%.
According to him, Governor Ronaldo Caiado (DEM) has been gradually relaxing the quarantine, but, as seen in the last decree, in areas that do not have as much impact.
The text published in the Official State Gazette on Thursday (26) brought, through a supplement, some changes in the quarantine rules and the complementary law, approved on Wednesday (25) by the Legislative Assembly of Goiás (Alego), which exempts the government from meeting previously established fiscal targets.
As pointed out, the changes in the terms of the quarantine are small and do not change the lives of the majority of the population. The new wording of decree 9.633/2020 releases the progress of civil construction works related to electricity, basic sanitation, hospitals, works of the socio-educational system, public power infrastructure and those of social interest, as well as commercial and industrial establishments that provide them with the respective inputs.
The government also gives permission for tire repair shops, workshops, restaurants and snack bars to operate on highways.
Workshops and tire repair shops must operate on a rotating basis to be established by the municipalities. Accommodation is also free for all those who provide public services or private activities considered essential.
Thought economists comment
For Aurélio, the initial 15-day quarantine was interesting. With it, it was possible for the country to prepare itself and for people to educate themselves to deal with the situation, especially in terms of personal hygiene. However, he believes that it is time to gradually release other sectors.
“Caiado needs to start thinking that 68% from state collection is ICMS. Without working and producing, there is no. It will be difficult to pay the payroll”, he predicts when highlighting the problem that will face the Secretary of State for Economy, Cristiane Schmidt.
“People will now be more careful. But we still have to keep the elderly in quarantine. Even the fear people felt was important,” he declared. “But we will have problems with low-income people, despite the fact that the federal government releases R$ 600 per person for the informal market [registered ones].”
However, he points out that the middle class manages to maintain itself with reservations for two or three months, with a credit card and overdraft. However, the poorest do not.
Although the relation to the fourth decree? There's not much you can do about employees and entrepreneurs either, according to Aurélio. “Some manage to keep it for 15 days, others that are not 'factory floor', at home office, but not for long either”, he adds and concludes. “The governor thinks like a doctor, and he is not wrong. You are doing the health analysis. But you have to think about other areas, too.”
