BRASÍLIA, DF (FOLHAPRESS) – In an attempt to show that the country’s economy is doing well, the Secom government of the Presidency of the Republic. Although he presented in his social networks a clipping of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which is not used by the IBGE.
The strategy is questioned by experts. The Presidency states that private GDP grew by 2.75%, while public GDP fell by 2.25%.
The publication, which cites the Ministry of Economy as a source, states that in the model adopted by President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party), the State ceases to be a protagonist and gives space to the private sector.
This week, the IBGE released the GDP result for last year, which rose by 1.1%. The data came in lower than initially projected by the market and the government and consolidated 2019 as the third consecutive year of weak economic growth.
The Secom publication states that the result “is below the rate of lies of those who support Brazil” and that the decline in public GDP is “good for Brazil”.
According to the economics professor at USP (University of São Paulo) Laura Carvalho, the account made by the government is not recognized by the IBGE and is not made by other statistical bodies in the world. “This violates the basic principles of the GDP concept, which requires that the economy be treated as a whole,” he said.
The economist claims that the account is ideological
This separation creates distortions, according to her, because, many times, goods produced by the government are consumed by families. Products from companies are also used by the government, as in the purchase of medicines by SUS, for example.
Another problem, for the researcher, would be the fact that the government's calculation includes investments by state-owned companies in the private sector's account.
The professor also questions the government's argument that private growth is replacing the public sector.
“It's not that there was a better allocation of resources. It is simply that the government has fewer resources and is investing less, spending less on infrastructure. It doesn't have to be celebrated," he said.
resources to invest
The calculation was also criticized by FGV economist and former Secretary of Economic Policy Manoel Carlos Pires. For him, the division between public and private GDP makes no sense.
“These things are not separable on those terms. When the government uses resources to invest, in general, it is the private sector that produces the capital good or does the construction, which is hired to produce this type of good or service. For that reason, this approach is wrong. There is no government GDP”, he said in an article that analyzes the SPE study
Economist and professor at Unb (University of Brasília) Roberto Ellery, who even collaborated with Bolsonaro's economic team, is also critical of the model. In an article, he claims that it is not news that government consumption grows less than household consumption and investment.
In a historical analysis, the economist states that of the last 23 years, 15 registered a smaller growth in government consumption, compared to family consumption.
In addition to questioning methodological aspects of the calculation, he points out that the current government's effort to carry out reforms is not yet felt in the accounts.
“The fruits of this effort will take some time to appear. I understand that there is a temptation to show results, but you have to be careful”, he says.
On Twitter, the Secretary for Economic Policy, Adolfo Sachsida, countered the criticism by stating that presentations by other ministry administrations and also by the Central Bank used the concept of private GDP.
“An exercise done by the ministry”
The executive director of the IFI (Independent Fiscal Institution), Felipe Salto, says he does not see the calculation as a big problem, considering that it is “an exercise carried out by the ministry”.
Especially after the release of the 2019 GDP, Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) stated that the result was already expected and that activity is accelerating. He pointed out that the economy's performance has gradually improved over the past year.
Guedes' subordinate, Treasury Secretary Mansueto Almeida, used a less optimistic tone and stated that last year's growth was very low, it is not normal and causes frustration in the presidency government society.
However, on Wednesday (4), Bolsonaro mocked the result by asking a comedian to answer questions from the press about the GDP.
The next day, he complained about the fact that the press published that he made a joke with the dice.
Thus, the president said he had heard from businessmen in the presidency that Brazil is doing well in the presidency.
However, the investment data includes the public and private sectors, the portfolio uses projections from researchers and data from the Treasury to estimate the share of this account under the responsibility of the government.
Although Secom used the data after the release of GDP for the full year of 2019. Therefore, the Ministry of Economy reported that the information is based on a note produced in January.
As such, the SPE compares the third quarter of last year with the same period of 2018 to reach an increase of 2.75% in private GDP and a decrease of 2.25% in public GDP.
In short, the result, when four quarters are accumulated. They are more modest, with 1.81% of growth in private GDP and 1.11% of decline in public GDP.
