São Paulo — Good news: production Industrial industry rose 0.9% in January compared to December, in the seasonally adjusted series, interrupting a sequence of two consecutive declines. Therefore, this Tuesday, the 10th, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced.
Despite not indicating a trend for the coming months, the result was above the consensus of 0.6% from Bloomberg and . However, within the expectations of analysts interviewed by Projeções Broadcast.
Although Grupo Estado's real-time news system, they expected a drop of 0.5% to an increase of 1.9%. Now it was just above the positive median of 0.8%.
Production of goods
The advance is the most intense since August last year and was driven by the production of capital goods, which rose 12.6% in the month after falling 12.26% in December.
“In general, the data is not strong enough to reverse expectations of slower activity, good news in 2020. Therefore, we remember that in January the Coronavirus episode had not yet broken out.
Therefore, observing increases in Capital goods and the production of Durables is a relief in an environment of bad news on the economic level”, says André Perfeito, chief economist at Necton, in a note.
Despite this, according to IBGE, the industrial sector is still 17.1% below the record level reached in May 2011 and at the same level as in August 2004, that is, more than 15 years ago.
“The positive result now derives more from a weak base, on top of two consecutive months of declines, rather than an improvement in the scenario or environment”, assessed the research manager, André Macedo.
“At the end of last year, there was a period of collective vacation in sectors such as automobiles and metallurgy. However, it is natural that with the return to work there will be good news about an increase in production”, he added.
Extractive industries
In relation to December, 7 of the 26 industrial segments registered an increase in production in January. Among the activities, the most important positive influences in the evaluation of 4E consultancy were machinery and equipment (11.5%). Although motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (4.0%), metallurgy (6.1%), food products (1.6%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.3%).
On the negative side, extractive industries (-3.1%) were very important, highlights 4E. “It is the fifth consecutive month of decline in production in the sector, which accumulates a loss of 8.9% in this period”, says 4E in a note.
