The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth outlook for Brazil in 2020, however it helped to contain the negative pressure from Mexico and Chile on the estimate for Latin America.
In the review of its Global Economic Perspective report, released this Monday, the IMF began to see an increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.2% from Brazil this year, 0.2 percentage points more than in the October report. The projection for global growth is 3.3% in 2020.
Mining Sector
According to the IMF, the upward revision of the estimate for this year is due to “the improvement in sentiment following the approval of the Pension reform and the reduction of supply problems in the mining sector”.
The fund's projection for this year is lower than estimated by the market and the government. According to this Monday's Focus Bulletin, which compiles market estimates for economic indicators, Brazilian GDP should increase 2.31% this year. The government forecasts growth of 2.40%.
For 2019 there was also an improvement in the projection, of 0.3 point, to 1.2%. This estimate, however, is above that projected by the government, 1.12%, and by the market, of 1.17%. IBGE releases data on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and the year 2019 on March 4.
The improved prospects for Brazil offset downward revisions to Mexico's growth in 2020 and 2021, among other reasons due to the continued weakness in investment.
Thus, in addition to a strong reduction for Chile after social demonstrations. Now, Latin America's growth estimate is 1.6% in 2020 and 2.3% in 2021, respectively cuts of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points.
For emerging and developing markets, the IMF forecasts expansion of 4.4% in 2020 and 4.6% in 2021, compared to the 3.7% estimated for 2019. Accounts for this year and next, however, were reduced by 0. 2 percentage points each in relation to the October forecast.
