BRASÍLIA, DF (FOLHAPRESS) – In an attempt to show that the country's economy is doing well, the Secom government of the Presidency of the Republic. Although he presented on his social networks a clipping of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which is not used by IBGE.
The strategy is questioned by experts. The Presidency states that private GDP grew by 2.75%, while public GDP fell by 2.25%.
The publication, which cites the Ministry of Economy as a source, states that in the model adopted by President Jair Bolsonaro (no party), the State ceases to be a protagonist and gives space to the private sector.
This week, IBGE released last year's GDP result, which increased by 1.1%. The figure was lower than initially projected by the market and the government and consolidated 2019 as the third consecutive year of weak economic growth.
The Secom publication states that the result “is below the rate of lies of those who support Brazil” and that the decline in public GDP is “good for Brazil”.
According to USP (University of São Paulo) Economics professor Laura Carvalho, the calculation made by the government is not recognized by the IBGE and is not made by other statistical bodies in the world. “This violates the basic principles of the GDP concept, which requires treating the economy as a whole,” he said.
The economist claims that the account is ideological
This separation creates distortions, according to her, because, often, goods produced by the government are consumed by families. Company products are also used by the government, such as when purchasing medicines through the SUS, for example.
Another problem, for the researcher, would be the fact that the government's calculation includes investments from state-owned companies in the private sector's account.
The professor also questions the government's argument that private growth is replacing the public sector.
“It’s not that there was a better allocation of resources. It's simply that the government has fewer resources and is investing less, spending less on infrastructure. This does not have to be celebrated”, he stated.
Resources to invest
The calculation was also criticized by FGV economist and former Secretary of Economic Policy Manoel Carlos Pires. For him, the division between public and private GDP makes no sense.
“These things are not separable in these terms. When the government uses resources to invest, generally speaking, the private sector is the one who produces the capital good or carries out the construction, which is contracted to produce this type of good or service. For this reason, this approach is wrong. There is no government GDP”, he stated in an article that analyzes the SPE study
Economist and professor at Unb (University of Brasília) Roberto Ellery, who collaborated with Bolsonaro's economic team, is also critical of the model. In an article, he states that it is nothing new that government consumption grows less than household consumption and investment.
In a historical analysis, the economist states that of the last 23 years, 15 have recorded lower growth in government consumption, compared to family consumption.
In addition to questioning methodological points in the calculation, he highlights that the current government's effort to carry out reforms is not yet felt in the accounts.
“The fruits of this effort will take a while to appear. I understand that there is a temptation to show results, but you have to be careful”, he says.
On Twitter, the Secretary of Economic Policy, Adolfo Sachsida, countered the criticism by stating that presentations from other administrations at the ministry and also from the Central Bank used the concept of private GDP.
“An exercise carried out by the ministry”
The executive director of the IFI (Independent Fiscal Institution), Felipe Salto, states that he does not see the calculation as a major problem, considering that it is “an exercise carried out by the ministry”.
Especially after the release of the 2019 GDP, Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) stated that the result was already expected and that activity is accelerating. He highlighted that the economy's performance has gradually improved over the past year.
Guedes' subordinate, Treasury Secretary Mansueto Almeida, used a less optimistic tone and stated that last year's growth was very low, is not normal and causes frustration in society government-presidency.
However, on Wednesday (4), Bolsonaro mocked the result by asking a comedian to answer questions from the press about GDP.
The next day, he complained about the fact that the press had published that he made fun of the data.
Therefore, the president stated that he had heard from businesspeople under the presidency that Brazil is doing well under the presidency.
However, the investment data includes the public and private sectors, the department uses projections from researchers and data from the Treasury to estimate the portion of this account under the government's responsibility.
Although Secom used the data after the release of GDP for the full year 2019. Therefore, the Ministry of Economy informed that the basis of the information is a note produced in January.
Accordingly, the document states that the SPE compares the third quarter of last year with the same period in 2018 to reach an increase of 2.75% in private GDP and a decline of 2.25% in public GDP.
In short, the result, when four quarters are accumulated. They are more modest, with 1.81% of private GDP growth and 1.11% of public GDP decline.
