The improvement in projections for Brazil's economic growth certainly does not raise concerns about the electricity sector's ability to absorb investment.
According to experts, the expansion of the generating park in recent years guarantees a break at least until 2024, and there is no risk of shortages.
After three years of advancing close to 1%, the growth expectation of the GDP in 2020 .
In the previous four years, energy consumption rose by about 5%, from 64,000 average megawatts (MWm) in 2015.
In the same period, installed capacity increased by 22%, from 134 gigawatts (GW) to 172 GW.
It was during this period that the Santo Antônio, Jirau, Belo Monte, wind and solar hydroelectric plants started operating.
These ventures were planned years in advance, based on projects with a much higher GDP and consumption than those that were implemented, explains Christopher Vlavianos, president of Comerc.
We have structural slack, as we had an increase in installed capacity without the counterpart.
Another 23 GW should enter by 2024, says Rodrigo Limp, director of the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel).
“We are confident that the Brazilian electricity sector is prepared to meet the strong energy consumption of the economy in the coming years.”
Thermoelectric Park
The coordinator of the Electric Sector Study Group (Gesel) at UFRJ, Nivalde de Castro, however, points out that the country has a thermoelectric plant that can be activated if there is any type of pressure.
From the point of view of serving the market, although the concern is zero until 2024. “Our fear is always with the price we are going to face”, he says.
According to him, however, with the improvement in the economic scenario and to avoid higher prices, several Abiape associates are studying to resume investments in their own plants in Brazil.
If in the past hydroelectric plants were the preference of self-producers, today the sector invests in wind power, with an eye on the “cheap energy shock” promised by the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes.
