The effects of the new coronavirus pandemic and restrictions on the operation of various economic activities could lead to a crisis and a loss of more than R$ 320 billion to the Brazilian economy.
Therefore, 6.5 million workers lose their jobs, according to a study commissioned by the National Confederation of Services (CNS).
According to the vice-president of the CNS, Luigi Nese, the expressive numbers should not be used to make a fuss. Although or in opposition to strategies recommended by health authorities to contain the spread of the disease.
President Jair Bolsonaro entered into a collision course with governors and health experts. Meanwhile, in advocating for workers to return to the streets so that the economy does not suffer such a huge impact from the pandemic.
Crisis according to WHO
The World Health Organization (WHO), however, advocates isolation for everyone as the only way to prevent the spread of the disease. Although in a state of sustained transmission, that is, when the origin of the contamination is unknown
“The purpose of the study is to show what a stoppage of 60 to 90 days can do to the economy. We ordered the data to prepare employers, workers, government and justice for a debate that will lead us to a post-crisis solution.
Regardless of a shorter or longer term in coping with the Covid-19, it is necessary to unite efforts for the economy to recover after this process”, he says.
The services sector must be precisely the most penalized, with the loss of around R$ 117 billion in revenue. Therefore, if the impacts of covid-19 on the economy drag on for a period of 60 to 90 days.
The study, obtained exclusively by Estadão/Broadcast, also points out that commerce will lose almost R$ 80 billion and the manufacturing industry will fail to earn around R$ 66 billion. The new coronavirus pandemic would still bring losses to civil construction (about R$ 20 billion) and agriculture (almost R$ 12 billion).
With that, the perspectives are of 2.2 million dismissals in the service sector, 2 million vacancies closed in commerce, 1 million jobs lost in industry, and 637 thousand jobs less in civil construction.
The study also shows that, with less production and employment, covid-19 can reduce federal revenue by almost R$ 125 billion this year.
Faced with a billionaire loss estimated in the study, Nese assesses that the measures already announced by the government will be. Therefore, they are insufficient to prevent the closure of small and medium-sized companies and the extinction of jobs.
Provisional Measure 927
“The government has announced measures to inject more resources into the market, but the aid dose will probably have to be increased”, he projected.
“The first thing to guarantee employment during and after the crisis is to relieve the payroll – immediately, without discussions. We have this opportunity to implement this, even through a proposal on taxation on electronic transactions”, he adds, once again defending the recreation of a tax along the lines of the former CPMF.
The executive also criticized the messy way in which Provisional Measure 927, which suspended contracts and wages for up to four months, was released earlier this week. Bolsonaro had to retreat from this point in the MP hours after its publication.
“This MP was a mess. What has to be strengthened is the employment contract, emphasizing that what is agreed is worth more than what is legislated.
Changes to vacations and journeys have already been made in collective agreements, usually for many years. The suspension of wages was a bad idea, which would further reduce demand during the crisis”, he adds.
Immune
If the scenario is gloomy for almost all sectors of the economy, the study shows that the segments of information technology, public and private health and public services, on the contrary, should maintain or increase income and jobs. Only companies in the health and social care sector are expected to have an increase of almost R$ 7 billion in revenue in 2020.
“Some sectors will grow at the expense of others. As they are strategic services in this time of crisis, professionals in this area will, on average, be in greater demand with an increased workload. But they will also be impacted if the crisis lasts too long,” says Nese. “Information technology will improve processes, facilitate sales and remote activities, but if the employee in these areas is unable to get to work, this branch will also stop”, he concludes.
