Dollar breaks new closing record and is traded at R$ 4.35 this Tuesday (18). Tracking the appreciation of stablecoins abroad, amid fears about the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
At the close of the session, the US currency rose to R$ 4.3568, which means a growth of 0.64%. Before that, the highest quotation had occurred on Wednesday (12), when the dollar reached R$ 4.3505. At the maximum of the session, it reached R$ 4.3613.
The US currency is up to 1.68% in the partial of the month. And it has already risen 8,65% in the year.
The currency's rise was intensified by fears over the spread of the coronavirus. The theme returned to the radar after Apple warned that it will not be able to meet revenue targets in the period between January and March, due to the disease.
“At the beginning of the year, there was optimism and forecasts for Brazil's economic growth were higher than 21TP3Q. As the year started to move forward, forecasts had to be lowered significantly.” You-Na Park-Heger, currency strategist at Commerzbank, told Reuters.
For her, the market will remain focused on the data in the weeks to come and the indicators "would need to be very positive to contain speculation about more monetary easing".
The successive reduction of the Selic rate since July 2019 has reduced the interest differential between Brazil and other emerging peers, which may make investment in the country less attractive for foreigners and generate a dollar outflow. This would raise the currency rate.
Prospects
The Brazilian market maintained the forecast for the Selic rate at the end of 2020 at 4.25% per year, according to the Focus survey released this Monday. Currently, the interest rate is already at this level.
The market forecast for GDP growth in 2020 was reduced to 2.23%. The projection for the exchange rate at the end of 2020 remained at R$ 4.10 per dollar. For the close of 2021, it rose from R$ 4.10 to R$ 4.11 per dollar.
