In a drop in temperature bulletin updated on January 9, the American Center for Meteorology and Oceanography (NOAA) maintained the forecast of climate neutrality, without El Niño or La Niña.
In summary, neutrality is favored until autumn 2020 in the Southern Hemisphere (60% chance), continuing until winter 2020. This does not mean that the Pacific temperature is within average.
Currently, we observe a warmer area in the Center and East of the ocean, something considered within the climatology drop in temperature by NOAA (the Pacific always warms up around Christmas) and which is not associated with the development of a new El Niño.
In any case, these oscillations cause intraseasonal variations related to tropical oscillations (Madden-Julian) or to Atlantic warming.
The tendency was for precipitation to be concentrated until the end of the second ten days period of January in Southeast Brazil and the Amazon. In the same period, it even rained, but with accumulated low in the South and without conditions of reversal of drought in RS.
In the last ten days of January, the rains gained strength and spread across the North, Northeast, Midwest and Southeast, leaving the South with little rain.
In February, rainfall decreased in São Paulo and continued over the Center-North of the country. With so much cloudiness, the drops in temperatures did not reach extreme values often this summer in most of Brazil. In Rio Grande do Sul, periods of dry weather favor high maximums.
Temperature - General Forecast
The temperature remained higher than normal in Rio Grande do Sul during this month of February. The minimums were below 15°C on some days, which reduced rice productivity at the end of the crop's development.
In March, the drop in temperature remains above average in the state. In April, although the temperature remains higher than normal.
However, the first waves of cold should arrive in the middle of the month. The cold waves intensify and one of them, forecast between the end of May and the beginning of June, increases the chance of extensive frosts in southern Brazil.
Precipitation - General Forecast
January ended with irregular rain over the Southern Region. In general, the total accumulated varied between 100mm and 200mm in Rio Grande do Sul.
Thus, along the border of the State with Uruguay, it rained less than 100mm for the third month in a row and the drought is getting worse. In February, rainfall distribution was irregular again with below-average precipitation in much of RS.
Therefore, the rain was more intense in the second half of the month, but still insufficient to reverse the water deficit in many areas. The drought was felt in the south of the State with an accumulation of less than 100mm.
In March, much of the region of Rio Grande do Sul will remain with less than average rainfall, but even so, the accumulated amount reaches at least 100mm in the south of the State.
From April, as is normal for autumn, precipitation will increase over the South Region and with an accumulated above 200mm in the North region. In May, the rain will continue over the South Region with an accumulated above 200mml.
Drop in temperature?
In general, speaking of rice producing areas, there is no great concern. However, even with the drought that has prevailed in recent months.
Thus, the crops were not so affected, as they still had enough water for development.
In short, from now on, the lack of rain is not a big concern for producers either, since there is little left to start the harvest and with that, the dry weather even helps.
